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CA’s Foreclosure Moratorium Has Ended — Now What? by Don Jergler | Realty Bites | 09.15.09 | | Text Size: +
California’s moratorium on foreclosures ends today. The thought strikes fear in those in real estate, perhaps more so for the mystery it holds than for the threat of a flood of foreclosures swamping the market. “It’s hard to predict,” said Allison Van Wig, a Keller Williams Realty agent who moderated a panel Monday at the Long Beach/South Bay Chapter of the Women’s Council of Realtors leadership luncheon. The California Foreclosure Prevention Act, which established a 90-day moratorium on foreclosure that went into effect June 15, ends today. RealtyTrac’s report for August shows foreclosure activity is down from the same time last year—9% from a year ago and 15% from the previous month—but the question is: are they going to be up in September and months following, now that the moratorium’s up? That’s what happened earlier this year after the federal government’s moratorium on foreclosures came to an end. For the most part, panelists at Monday’s real estate event expressed concern, mixed with a hint of optimism, about the end of the moratorium, and they offered their thoughts on general market conditions to a crowd of more than 100 professionals from the industry gathered at The Grand in Long Beach. Richard Daskam, another Keller Williams agent, noted that he reads legal notice advertisements in the Long Beach Press-Telegram daily to keep tabs on trustee notices of foreclosure sales. What Daskam’s seen is a surge in notices in the 90808 and the 90815 ZIP codes. He recently conducted an online foreclosure search in which little bubbles pop up with addresses in locations where a foreclosure can be found in affordable areas, like Hawaiian Gardens, South Gate and Compton. “There were so many bubbles that you couldn’t even see the streets,” Daskam said. Marna Brennan, with First Team Real Estate, is hopeful banks won’t start foreclosing following the end of the moratorium and then hurriedly sell of properties once they own them. “I’ve heard the banks are going to pace the number of (real estate owned properties) they put back on the market,” she said. Fellow
panelist John Dumke, with Keller Williams, said he doesn’t believe the end of
the moratorium will “to be a big impact on neighborhoods.” In nicer areas, you
have true buyers looking for their ideal homes, and in more undesirable areas
you have “repos dictating values.” On a brighter note, panelists say that in-spite of the hard-to-predict impact the end of the foreclosure moratorium will have on Southern California, we have reached bottom and the market will be on the way up sometime in the near future. “Obviously I’d say the market’s not going down,” said Dumke, who noted in the Los Altos neighborhood of Long Beach that the housing supply has dwindled to a meager one to one-and-a-half-months. Such short supply is putting upward pressure on pricing, he said, adding, “I’d say we’ve seen prices come up $20,000 to $40,000.” Daskam agreed. “I’d say we’re at the bottom of the pendulum. It doesn’t matter now when you buy, as long as you buy before prices start going up quickly the other way.” Comments
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21 Comments so far.
sid Hope was the father of the thoughts in this article. Sally It was good to meet you at the WCR meeting yesterday. Keep up the good work! Anonymous stupid is as stupid does richard "....before prices go up quickly the other way." This is not going to happen, prices will remain flat for a long time. You will be lucky if you don't see a 10% drop in prices in the next couple of years. Skip buying a house, put money in stock market when it takes a dip. Trust me the stock market will be up more than housing in 10 years. Ravisherr LMAO buy before prices start going up. Pitchmen to the end. Worldcom anyone? Esteban So the foreclosure moratorium has ended and a bunch of realtors think the market is headed higher. Have you ever heard of a realtor that predicted lower prices? It would be nice to have some non-realtors give some opinions and viewpoints. longhorn Wow, what a joke. LOL Kim no one said the market was going to go up...read the article before commenting...Also, when stocks go down you have nothing..at least in 10 years I am paying off my home and coming closer to no payment when I retire. If I purchase a home and pay it off in 30 years I have a great retirement benefit. You cannot promise that with stocks Paul I would rather have a house to live in then stocks that go down and give you nothing! Michael My question is that do you think that slowing down the foreclosure process and creating a backlog will make the problem worse. The halt to tye foreclosure process, not having enough people to process, adding to our deficit is all linked to the next big drop or drops for a stalled possibly 5-10 yr problem because the politics and policies stalled housing. I bet in 2 yrs we may see a bottom in the price of housing. No realtor will tell you that. Jiim Turner Fed economist says: A second, punishing wave of home foreclosures is poised to strike just as the subprime mortgage mess ebbs. Kelly Edmiston, senior economist for the Federal Reserve says “I don’t expect the foreclosure problem to get much better in the next couple of years. In fact, it may well get worse.” Lenders laid the groundwork for this second foreclosure wave in 2005 and 2006, Edmiston said. Those years saw a surge in mortgages on which borrowers were required to make relatively small monthly payments for the first five years. It was the height of the housing bubble, and buyers turned to such loans, called interest-only mortgages and payment-option adjustable-rate mortgages, as one way to jump into the runaway market. Those low house payments are poised to reset to much higher levels in 2010 and 2011 and push more owners out of their homes, Edmiston said. Carry Stone With unemployment continuing to rise (CA Jobless Rate Jumps To 11.9%), expect real estate prices to be another 20-25% lower in 18 months. The second wave of the ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) is just about to start resetting and the banks have been holding back a massive amount of property that they have to put on the market later this year. Furthermore the developers have an enormous inventory of nearly finished units about to hit market. For example, SF's South of Market area has thousands of expensive brand new little condos for sale. Meanwhile the developers are finishing up thousands more of these overpriced small units for an already crowded market. There are very few buyers; supply and demand will take effect. Expect prices to plunge further, not rise, over the next several years. By the way, the Federal Reserve estimates home prices could fall 18 to 29 percent more by the end of 2010. kiter I think prices will go further down. Jeremy Colonna While I am a Realtor, and not an economist, I think we're looking at basic economics here. Supply was artificially depleted by the foreclosure moratorium. Demand was artificially inflated by the $8000 tax incentive. When supply goes down and demand goes up, prices rise. Conversely, when demand goes down and supply goes up, prices fall. After the new crop of foreclosures begins to come into the marketplace and the tax rebate goes away, prices should fall. In the current climate, there are no guarantees; but, I think that all indicators point to another decline from the pricing that we've been seeing over the past three to six months. Esteban I completely agree with your analysis, Jeremy. Ev “I’d say we’re at the bottom of the pendulum. It doesn’t matter now when you buy, as long as you buy before prices start going up quickly the other way.” You have got to be joking. This is just the beginning. There is alot further to go. How low will it go? Back to prices that working people can afford. Screw the granite counter tops, we will get fair pricing at last. Gina As long as the jobless rate continues to climb, salaries are cut, that face it, haven't really increased much over the past 15 years anyhow, the housing prices will find their way back down to what is truly affordable to the consumers with REALISTIC loan parameters and payments. The artificial influences of buying incentives and moreover, moratoriums that create the illusion of undersupply temporarily drives up demand and prices and prohibits the market from finding it's true value. Anonymous 5/1 arms adjusting we will see another wave D Scott Avery This article is informative to the extent of notifying those who were not aware of the moratorium that it had ended. The only upturn in pricing is coming on the very low end of the market due primarily to the new home owner tax credit and FHA loans which frankly allow buyers to get in for basically nothing down because of low down payment requirements and sellers contributing to buyers closing costs. I am a realtor and I do not subscribe to the euphoria that seems to be exuding from this meeting. Home prices I will agree are making a rebound on the lower end of the market but from price points that are 50% below where they were two to three years ago. The higher end market is languishing and will continue to do so for some time i suspect. Dave H Many folks all over the U.S. who qualify are being rejected and homes sold even within days after being told foreclosure sales would be delayed. Foreclosure notices are being sent at the same time the homeowner is frantically been trying to stop it with in my case, and many others submitting documents for the HAMP Plan (and mortgage owned by Fannie Mae) and being told not to worry and wait until contacted by a "processor" Instead they send a foreclosure notice. If the servicer determines you are not eligible for a modification, it does not have to give any reason and can the next day sell your home with no notice, no time to take any action in a non-judicial foreclosure like typical in AZ, once the original 90 days has past. On 9/11/09 National Consumer Law center said ""Participating servicers violate the HAMP guidelines by selling homes at foreclosure while homeowners are negotiating loan modifications, requiring waivers of homeowner rights, and refusing to offer HAMP modifications to qualified borrowers. Lack of transparency in the application, review and turn down process exacerbates these problems." Attorney Jeff Barens warns about this exact issue in article of 9/11/09 “BEWARE THE “END-RUN” (SNEAK) FORECLOSEURE” article at www.foreclosureDefensenationwide.com It reports the widespread practice of servers telling customers not to worry about the foreclosure notice, messes up the paper work and trustee sale is completed! I have had a six month battle with CitiMortgage with lies, screwed up paperwork and at their mercy to not do a no notice instant sale upon their whim, when I should easily quality for a HAMP modification and have been approved twice. There are many frantic people like me that will do anything to keep our homes, not even looking for principle reduction just the 31% of income mortgage under HAMP where we pass the Net Present Value test showing it is better to modify than a foreclosure sale. But many servicers are selling our homes without notice anyway. I have 9 pages of docuemented notes call by call in my six month battle with CitiMortgage to save my home showing the lies and failure to meet the Fannie Mae and HAMP directives. Even my Hope for Homeowners escalation team person is running into the same brick walls and going around in circles with them trying to help me. ajano Heres my take...the market perhaps has stablized but i dont think we will see any significant increases in home values anytime soon...but as mentioned by jermeys comments, the tax credit stimulated short term demand, and the moritorium created an artificial shortage of supply. the strategy seems well thought out, the hopes were that by the time this unprecedented stimulus made its way through the economy, we should have gotten back on the track of "growth", but there has been no growth in real terms, if you have seen any price increase on anything its just anticipating and pricing in future inflation. I truly believe that as the baby boomers retire there will be a further strain on the economy. people in their 20s 30s 40s that live in large cities such as los angeles chicago new york etc, do not get paid enough to be able to rent and save enough to buy. there is a desire to buy, but no means. i look at myself as an example. I am in my mid 20s, married, and have very little debt. My combined household income is 150,000 which puts me in the 28% tax bracket. I cannot afford financing 450k house which in any semi desirable part of california would be considered a fixer/starter home unless i put down 20%...or 90k+closing costs so roughly 105k. I dont even have any fancy cars or anything...just basic things... and with that it would still take me at least 2-3 years if i was very aggressive with my savings to save up that much money. In my mind, I would think that making that much money would have been enough to live in a decent home but the reality is that id barely have enough to save anything and thats why I think that prices are still higher than what the next generation of home owners will be able to afford. in the last 2 months, I moved from los angeles to houston where the "system" actually allows young couples to be able to afford living in a fair priced house and still be able to save. I still want to buy and eventually live in los angeles, but i dont think i will be able to until i either save up a lot more or prices continue to fall.
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Don Jergler's 12-year journalism career spans four daily newspapers, one magazine and a website. Between 2002 and 2008 he covered real estate, redevelopment, general business, tourism and downtown for the Long Beach Press-Telegram. For the past year he was Editor of Real Estate Southern California and edited and wrote for the popular commercial real estate news source globest.com.
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