| 11.04.08|
Off My Rocker: Front Porch Election Predictions
It is finally here. Well, it will be by the time you read this post — it is still to come as I write this on Monday morning, Election Day Eve. After the longest Presidential campaign in history, Election Day is upon us. Once again we will demonstrate to the world how democracy works and the peaceful transition of power as the citizens select those who will represent them in government. No more rhetoric, promises, yard signs or bumper stickers, now it comes down to each of us, alone, with a ballot.
Predictions are valuable in that they cause us to unlink the heart and the mind if we wish to be accurate. Our pollsters use the responses of a few individuals and then from their responses make statements of who is ahead — a prediction for who may, or should win. In the past two Presidential Elections, the major polls were pretty much wrong all the way through election day. In 2000, the major polls had Gore beating Bush and in 2004 those same polls had Kerry defeating the incumbent — these same polls show Barak Obama defeating John McCain in 2008. In both 2000 and 2004, the Investors Business Daily poll was the only one tracking very close elections up to election day — both times the IBD polls were on the money.
The tracking poll for IBD through Sunday shows polling numbers within the margin of error and once again too close to call with McCain gaining for several days. The key to reading polls is a) know who is paying for the poll and b) what is the momentum one way or the other. Could IBD once again show the flaws (I’d say bias but many of you are tired of hearing this from me) in the polling processes of the major polls quoted by the mainstream media?
At the risk of scorn, criticism, and Wednesday morning “I told you so’s,” I will make my predictions for some of our key races. I have tried my best to look at the races and their political calculus in making my predictions, on some I had to go with my gut and instincts. Be gentle and polite, please.
The easiest race to call is the race that is not. In my home district, the 37th Congressional District incumbent Laura Richardson (D) is running with only one opponent on the ballot, independent Nicholas Dibs (and several write-in candidates). Richardson should have close to 70% of the vote in this heavily Democratic district with virtually no opposition, anything less than the combined 68% she and Jenny Oropeza captured in the June 2007 special election in which she won the seat is a commentary on the dissatisfaction with her as a candidate and Representative.
Also in the upper reaches of Long Beach there are two races that have had very little exposure due to their one-sidedness and lack of big-name Long Beach appeal — in fact, one of the races is currently not on the Long Beach Post live election-results page. First we have the 25th District Senate race between Rod Wright (D) and Lydia Gutierrez (R); just down the ballot is the 55th Assembly District contest between incumbent Warren Furutani (D) and Edwin Williams (R). Both of these will go as gerrymandered, to the Democrats by over 65%.
Speaking of the LBPost Election Results counter, I wish they would wait until polls close to start announcing results. But here is another prediction; like they did in 2000 the major networks will start calling states and electoral votes in Eastern States while those to the West are still voting. I guess the LBPost.com numbers will just reflect the information you can get on television.
Farther South in the area of Long Beach, incumbent Alan Lowenthal (D) is challenged by Allen Wood (R) in the 27th Senatorial District. Lowenthal safely maintains his seat by at least twenty points. In what should be a closer match-up for the 54th District Assembly seat, we have the race between Long Beach resident Bonnie Lowenthal (D) and her challenger from Palos Verdes, Gabriella Holt (R). While I support Holt, it is tough for an outsider to win this heavy Long Beach district, especially when the opponent has the name Lowenthal. Lowenthal wins with less than 55%.
The first time I cast a ballot was in November 1980. I was a freshman in college in Claremont, California and was excited to be able to vote for the first time. I grew up in a very politically active family and had been around politics for as long as I could remember. As well, I had just spent three years living and going to high school in Brussels, Belgium — I was excited to participate in the ultimate American experience: casting my ballot on Election Day. That year Ronald Reagan was running against Jimmy Carter and an independent named John Anderson was also on the ballot. Several of my friends at college who were from Southern California were going to go home after dinner and vote. During dinner, the networks all called the election for Reagan. Some of my friends decided then not to vote — perhaps hurting local candidates needing every vote to win; others went home and voted for Anderson so he could reach the threshold to receive matching funds for his campaign. Calling Presidential elections early hurts the down ballot candidates and propositions, but no one running a network news operation really cares about that, they just want to be first. What if voter turnout to defeat Proposition 8 is depressed and it fails because the networks call the Presidential election at 5:00 local time just to win the race to call the election first? In 2000, it was a race to be first to be wrong.
Down in the Southeast corner of the City is the 46th Congressional District race between incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) and Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook (D). This race is very tight, mostly due to the Obama coattails in the area, and perhaps Republican fatigue in the area by independents. While this race is very close, I give the edge to the incumbent by a slim point or two. Should Cook pull the upset, it would not be a shock.
I am going to skip the judges — unfortunately these critical pieces of our government structure get too little attention in our electoral process. Let’s move on to the major propositions. I’ll make it easy and save some space: of the spending measures I think all will fail with the exception of Prop 3 (funding for children’s hospitals), most will fail by very large margins: Props 1A, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10 and 12 fail.
Of the non-spending measures, Proposition 11 calling for re-districting will pass by a large number. Despite both major parties being against the measure, there has been no organized support campaigning against the measure. Look for the new politics of California in your future. Proposition 4 (parental notification for abortions for minors) and Proposition 8 are “values” measures and both have been on the ballot in some form before. Proposition 4 will pass by about 5 points — in the end, parents who vote want to have a say in their children’s healthcare, especially major surgery.
Proposition 8 centers on the most divisive social issue of our era. What abortion was to the Roe v. Wade decision, gay marriage will be to the first two decades of this century. This is an issue that divides families and parties. Most Democrats support gay marriage, except many whose religious values and affiliations oppose gay marriages. Most Republicans oppose gay marriage, except many such as me who lean left on social issues. To show the degree to which this issue is so divisive is to look at the polling and the final results after the election. Despite a state that has a majority of Democrats as registered voters, and the support of a majority of independents, this ballot measure may be decided by just a few points. I have spoken with some people who support gay marriage but are voting for Proposition 8 because they resent that this issue has come before voters before and the will of the voters was over-turned by the California Supreme Court by one vote; I think this sentiment is more prevalent through the state than is being reported — voter rage perhaps? Despite my strong opposition to Prop 8 it is my prediction that it will pass by a very slim margin — let’s hope I am wrong.
Long Beach Unified School District faces a bar of 55% for Measure K to pass and provide bond funding for school repair, remodeling and building. With considerably less attention than fellow ballot Measure I, Measure K has significant support and no organized opposition. Top to bottom this measure is supported by District employees, from TALB to Superintendent and everyone in between. Measure K passes with more than enough votes to cross the 55% threshold.
In 1992 I was at a weekly breakfast meeting for the North Long Beach-Bixby Real Estate Club at Phil Trani’s restaurant on Long Beach Blvd. The speaker that morning was a candidate for City Council with a compelling message running against the entrenched incumbent Clarence Smith. I made my first campaign contribution that morning writing a $75 check with only about $80 in my account to Doris Topsy-Elvord For City Council.
Mayor Bob Foster has worked as hard as anyone can work to get a measure passed. Measure I, like Prop 8, has no real party or political identity. Supporters and opponents to Measure I come from all parts of the city and both major political parties. People who agree on every single vote on the ballot disagree on Measure I. Foster has held numerous meetings, taken numerous hits and raised significant money to pass Measure I, and to be successful he needs 66.1% of voters to agree with him. No one can fault the Mayor on his commitment to repairing our city’s infrastructure. Measure I is the Mayor’s Measure and unfortunately some are making the result of the ballot measure to also be a referendum on the Mayor himself; it is not and should not be cast as such. Two-thirds is a very big number to get in an election, but I think Measure I will be very close to that number — up or down by just a few points. My prediction is that Measure I gets passed by the slimmest of margins.
In the Front Porch Kitchen we have placemats for the kids that are a map of the United States, the Solar System, monetary units, and one that is has the Presidents of the United States from George (Washington) to George (Bush—the W Bush). My oldest daughter is nine and she cannot remember not having the mat. This morning she told me as I was toasting their waffles, “Dadda, after tomorrow we are going to have to get a new placemat.” Yes, we will. For no matter what the results of the Presidential Contest tomorrow we will have to get a new placemat with the biographical information of either Barack Obama or John McCain.
Now for the top of the ballot. Momentum is huge in elections and it has swung the past ten days or so. Maybe this is the one prediction I am making more with my heart than with my head, but as I have said in an earlier post I made this prediction in January and am not changing it on election eve. By Pennsylvania, John McCain becomes our nation’s 44th President.
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Time to get the signs down so they don’t block the view from the Front Porch.
Thank you for voting America!
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