| 03.25.08|
March Madness: The Barack/Hillary Bracket
I love the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, dubbed “March Madness”. It is a rite of spring that I have celebrated with my friends since college, and I am not alone as the tournament ranks only below the Super Bowl in popularity for sporting events. It runs over three weekends, sixty-five colleges from around the country participate and everyone has a bracket going and bragging about the upset they picked.
Oh yeah, the upsets! The tournament is special in the number of games that come down to a less than last second shot that advances a Cinderella or gives breath back to a favorite. A lot of kids learn geography from watching the tournament—where is Butler (Indianapolis), Winthrop (Rock Hill, SC), Austin Peay (Clarksville, TN and alma mater of Fly Williams who when he played inspired the student section cheer “Fly’s open! Let’s Go Peay!”). I have met people who set their mind on a college because they saw them in the Tournament—how else to explain leaving Southern California to attend Temple (Philadelphia)? The key to winning a March Madness “event” (since pools are illegal in California) is picking the right upsets—picking a really good team that has little national recognition and becomes a “bracket buster” upsetting favored teams others in the “event” have picked to go very far or even win it all.
Those reading who have watched a lot of college basketball, or most any sport, also know this familiar episode; an underdog falls pretty far behind a favored team and then starts playing perfect basketball. The underdog fights and claws, dives after loose balls and fights for rebounds, makes the extra pass and swishes every shot. While this is happening the favorite misses easy shots, makes errant passes and shows numerous mental lapses. After several minutes the underdog ties the game! A few more trips up and down the court and they have a lead! Two points, three points, five points!
Then timeout is called and the favorite gathers around their coach. They are a favorite not only because of their athleticism and talent but also because of their coaching. “Okay everyone take a breath and relax for a moment. You know you are better that this team. We have made some mistakes and let them back in the game, which made you press and led to more mistakes. Let’s play our game and exploit theirs and we will win this.”
The coach then reminds them of their strengths that they need to play to, and also reminds his team of the weaknesses on the other team that need to be exploited. A referee whistle blows and slowly the favorite takes back the lead and puts the game away—winner move on to the next round. It will happen again and again over the next couple of weeks. A team will make a big run to come from behind and either through exhaustion from the effort spent, or exploitation of exposed weaknesses and leveraging of strengths by the favored team they run out of gas and fall behind with nothing left to come back again and win the election….I mean the game.
A year ago I wrote a post entitled Not A Screen Test. The post criticized the media, specifically New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, for their treatment of Senator Barack Obama. At the time I said they were doing him a disservice by commenting on his ability to give a speech, his manner, his star power and not on his positions on issues and substantive policy proposals. At the time Senator Hillary Clinton held a significant lead and was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party for President of the United States; she led in the polls and led—by a very significant amount—in funds raised and on hand.
Over the course of the year the media continued to be bedazzled by Obama’s stage presence, by the crowds he draws, by the money he has been able to raise; and ignored his positions on health care, national security and other important issues. At the same time the Clinton camp made mistake after mistake. Eventually the underdog took that lead in the race for the nomination and it appeared that when the Democrats meet in Denver this summer Obama would get the nomination. But then timeout was called, the Clinton team re-grouped and weaknesses were discovered and began to get exploited.
Has the underdog run out of gas? In overnight polls Clinton is once again even with Obama, and has momentum. Do Obama and his team have the strength and stamina to turn the momentum in the face of a national media now, finally, exploring his positions, his relationships, and his ideology? Now that Obama is being treated like every other serious candidate for the position of President does he have the ability to treat the recent setbacks as minor missteps and regain his position on top of the polls of Democratic voters?
It happens; sometimes the favorite also expends too much energy getting the lead back. Sometimes a referee (super delegate) makes a bad call. Yes, sometimes, often times, the underdog comes back a second time and wins the big game. But more often than not once they run out of gas their run is over.
The Democratic National Convention is in five months, certainly a long time away and a lot will happen. Obama may once again wear the mantle of “favorite”, or Clinton may grab what she feels is, and has been, rightfully hers. But after watching years and years of basketball and athletic contests—and politics—if betting were legal in California I would place my money on the initial front runner.
And speaking of money, once the Democrats select their candidate, how much money will be left for the general election in November? Between the two candidates they have sucked hundreds of millions of dollars out of their funding base, speaking of running out of gas….
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